Monday, March 3, 2008

The Neverending Primary Continues

Clinton is rebounding in the polls in both Texas and Ohio. Looks like the kitchen sink may be doing the trick for her, along with the NAFTA absurdity and perhaps the red phone ad.

On that last, I've seen lots of discussion over what, exactly the positive argument was for Clinton (which her advisors had some trouble coming up with themselves when pressed), what national security crisis prepared her for being the person answering the White House phone at 3 am. I'd argue that the point wasn't to sell Clinton, per se, at all. Rather, it was to sow unease and fear and to drive people back to the safe and known quantity, the Clinton brand. Add in the subtle questions being raised by the "is he or is he not a Muslim" meme going around (with pictures!), and you create some reasons for doubt and fear of the unknown. I've already expounded on how I feel about these tactics, but I don't think, particularly for Democrats, that the answer to winning, or long-term accomplishment of anything positive, is to play every Republican game, as defined by Karl Rove and company.

Predictions? I say Clinton takes Ohio by at least 10 points. I think they'll break pretty close to even in Texas because I think early voting was running pretty heavily in his favor (this Ohio weather is going to be a complicating factor for turnout there, though). I further predict that it's enough to turn some talk of "momentum" in Clinton's direction, regardless of her odds of recouping her delegate deficit. That would of course help her in matchup polls, as well as in persuading superdelegates.

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